Three games into the Six Nations and Scotland could've (should've) been on course for a Grand Slam.
Being a Scotsman, the hope is always there. But then the famous saying comes into play: “It's the hope that kills you.”
The answer to the question straight away is yes: on paper they do. But sport is not played on paper, and realistically the answer is no.
I have never seen Scotland win the Six Nations. I was born a year before they won the last Five Nations. Throughout my life, Scotland have never really been in serious consideration to win it.
Growing up, I was given a DVD which I watched over and over again. It was the Calcutta Cup win in 2006: the win over France at home, plus a narrow win over Italy. That season was considered a resounding achievement for Scotland Rugby at the time. We finished third.
That's part of the issue. Scottish teams have often celebrated mediocrity.
Signs of improvement?
In more recent years, the attitude and belief around the Scotland team has improved. We've started to see genuine world-class players break through, the likes of Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, and Huw Jones. That DVD I grew up watching now feels less significant when you consider we've beaten England six times in the last nine Six Nations meetings.
But that's also Scotland's problem. We are passion merchants. We rise to England, as we should. If you can't get up for the oldest rivalry in rugby, you shouldn't be there. But once that fixture is out of the way, the edge seems to fade. We either grind out a result against Italy or scrape a narrow win like the 26-23 over Wales.
On paper, we should be competing for a Grand Slam.
Huw Jones, selected as outside centre in World Rugby's Team of the Year. Sione Tuipulotu, potentially the best inside centre in the world right now. Finn Russell, one of the highest-paid players in the sport, often described as the “Messi” of rugby. These are pivotal positions. These are game-winning roles. So why do we still fall short?
Who is going to stand up?
One area where Scotland haven't progressed is in producing a standout forward. Look at other Six Nations winners: they've all had a forward who could define a campaign. Ireland had Paul O'Connell. France had Thierry Dusautoir. Wales had Sam Warburton. England had Martin Johnson. Even Italy had Sergio Parisse. Where is Scotland's?
The hard-hitting tackler? The leader other countries envy? The relentless ball carrier who always makes positive yards? The nuisance who wins turnovers at the crucial moment? The brutal answer is: we haven't had one.
Scotland's mentality gap
There are several reasons Scotland fall short, but mentality is the main sticking point. At times, we think we're better than we are. A clear example was the New Zealand game in the Autumn Nations: Blair Kinghorn, all 6'4″, 107kg of him, being driven into the turf on the touchline by 5'10″, 78kg Damian McKenzie.
Sport has a way of summarising everything in a single moment.
Right now, there's still a sense of “we gave it a good go.” But championships aren't won on effort alone.
So… can Scotland win it?
Yes, on paper, Scotland have what it takes. The talent is there. The tools are there. This is arguably the best group of players we've had in years. But hope without ruthlessness is just hope.
The Italy loss in Week 1 is the perfect example. Championship teams win games they don't deserve to win. They win ugly. If not now, when? France, England, Ireland, and Wales have all shared titles in the modern era: six or seven wins each. Scotland's best finishes? Third place, five times in 26 years. And one of those seasons ended up on a DVD.
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